Scottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 golfer, is playing the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota, for the first time, a week after finishing near the top at The Open Championship. Kurt Kitayama took this title last year and returns to defend it. Scheffler is the favorite — but with more than 140 players in the field, traders still see a strong chance someone else comes out on top.
You’re betting on who wins the 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. After a winner is declared, only that player’s side gets paid. The other sides lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 25% | he wins the 3M Open | ~$380 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 4.1% | he wins the 3M Open | ~$2,285 |
| Tom Kim | 3% | he wins the 3M Open | ~$3,121 |
| Maverick McNealy | 3% | he wins the 3M Open | ~$3,121 |
| Jackson Koivun | 2.8% | he wins the 3M Open | ~$3,343 |
More than a hundred other players are listed near 1% to 2% each. If one of those players wins, that side pays and these favorites lose. If a player withdraws or does not tee off, that player’s side loses.
Kalshi confirms the winner from official PGA Tour results.
The case for Scheffler. Scheffler is the world’s No. 1 player and a four-time major winner, and he arrives after finishing tied for fourth at The Open Championship last week. In May, 3M announced he would play the event for the first time, and Scheffler said he is looking forward to competing at TPC Twin Cities. He leads this field this season in iron shots into the green. That matters here because water sits around most greens — miss the green and you can end up in the water — so the players who hit those shots closest give themselves the best look at birdie and avoid big mistakes. That is the Scheffler case: the best player in golf, priced as a clear favorite even on a course he has never walked in competition.
The case for Kitayama. Why Kitayama still sits at 4.1%: he won this tournament a year ago and finished tied for sixth the year before, so he already knows what it takes to shoot a low score on this course. The 3M Open has never had a repeat champion, and 4.1% still makes him a long shot behind Scheffler and a deep field.
25% means traders see Scheffler as the most likely winner — and still give about a 75% chance that someone else wins.
Put the top of the field side by side. Scheffler is at 25%. Kitayama is at 4.1%. Tom Kim and Maverick McNealy are at 3% each, and Jackson Koivun at 2.8%. Those five names hold under 40% combined; more than 60% belongs to everyone else on a deep entry list.
A 25% favorite in a 140-plus player event is a strong golf favorite.
3 reasons 25% can still move:
Thursday through Sunday, July 23–26, 2026, at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. First round is Thursday; the winner is decided after Sunday’s final round.