Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household

Dee Valladares, who won season 45 of the CBS show Survivor, entered Big Brother Season 28 as a surprise 17th houseguest, won the first Head of Household competition — each week, that winner chooses who can be nominated for eviction — and steered the season’s first eviction. Sixteen players remain. She is the favorite, but traders still see a strong chance someone else wins the season.

How this market pays

You’re betting on who wins Big Brother Season 28 on CBS and Paramount+. After the finale names a winner, only that houseguest’s side gets paid. The other sides lose.

Twelve other houseguests in this market are listed from about 1% to 7% each. Ashley Trail was already evicted in Week 1 and still appears near 1% — that side loses.

Kalshi confirms the winner from CBS and Paramount+.

How to look at each side

The case for Dee. Valladares already won Survivor once — season 45 of the CBS outdoor survival show — then walked into this house as the late 17th houseguest and immediately took Head of Household. Survivor and Big Brother are different games: Survivor is weeks outdoors with tribal votes; Big Brother locks players in one house for months with a new Head of Household almost every week. Nobody has ever won both shows. Dee has said she wants to be the first. In Week 1, while she was Head of Household, the house evicted Ashley Trail by a 14–0 vote — every eligible voter said Ashley’s name. She is the favorite at 17% with 16 players still left. That is the Dee case: a Survivor winner who wants to win Big Brother too, and who already got the house to vote 14–0 in Week 1.

The case for Drew. Why Campbell still sits at 14%: he is a 22-year-old surgical dental assistant from Temecula, California, and he is only three points behind Dee with most of the summer still ahead. He is already in the same early eight-person alliance as Dee and Rick Devens, who won Week 2 Head of Household. The group calls itself the Toolshed — Drew’s joke name for wanting to get other houseguests, the ones they call “tools,” out of the house — not a label for the eight of them. That is the Drew case at 14%: in the same early alliance as Dee and the current Head of Household, with most of the summer still ahead.

What the odds are saying

Put $100 on Dee at 17% and you get about $555 back if she wins the season; the same stake on Drew at 14% returns about $673.

Dee is at 17%. Drew is at 14%. Barrett Pfeiffer is at 11%, Kamu Kirk at 9%, and Rick Devens at 8%. Those five houseguests hold about 59% combined. About 41% still belongs to the other listed players — including Jason De Puy, Lyric Medeiros, and Melody Morris, who are the Week 2 nominees.

Dee and Drew together are only about 31%. That leaves about a 69% chance that someone outside the top two wins the season.

3 reasons Dee’s 17% chance can still move:

1. Week 1 Head of Household is over. Dee chose who faced eviction in Week 1 and got a 14–0 result. She could not compete for Week 2’s Head of Household job, and she can already be nominated this week. Rick Devens — an ally — holds that job and nominated Jason, Lyric, and Melody instead, so her safety right now comes from that alliance, not from still being Head of Household.
2. No Survivor player has won Big Brother yet. Before Dee and Rick, only Cirie Fields — a famous Survivor player who never won that show — had finished a Big Brother season after Survivor. She made it to fifth place on Big Brother 25 in 2023. A deep run is possible; a Survivor résumé alone has not produced a Big Brother winner.
3. Head of Household already changed hands. Rick Devens, who also came from Survivor, won Week 2 Head of Household and nominated Jason, Lyric, and Melody. Dee and Drew are in that same early alliance while Rick is Head of Household — so Thursday’s live eviction can move several top names at once, not only the people nominated this week.

What to watch

Wednesday, July 22, and Thursday, July 23, 2026 on CBS (8/7c), with streaming on Paramount+. Thursday is the live Week 2 eviction. The season winner is named at the finale; this market’s last trading day is December 31, 2026.