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August 16, 2026, 5:20pm ET
The Heisman race begins with name recognition, quarterback projection, and a field so open that the favorite is still barely above one chance in eight. CJ Carr and Arch Manning are the two names at the top, but three more quarterbacks sit close enough to matter before the season has sorted itself out.
You are betting on which player wins the Heisman Trophy for this college football season. If the named player wins the award, that side wins. If someone else wins, that side loses.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if... | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | 13% | the Notre Dame quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy | ~$714 |
| Arch Manning | 11% | the Texas quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy | ~$833 |
| Darian Mensah | 8% | the Miami quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy | ~$1,111 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 7% | the Ole Miss quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy | ~$1,250 |
| Julian Sayin | 7% | the Ohio State quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy | ~$1,250 |
Many other players are listed below the top five. If one of those players wins the trophy, that player’s side wins and the five names in this table lose.
The case for CJ Carr. Carr is the Notre Dame quarterback at the top of the market, and the case starts with a clean sophomore leap story. Sports Illustrated’s college football preview credited him with 2,741 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 66.6% completion rate in 2025. It also noted that Notre Dame’s top two backs, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, left for the NFL, which can put more of the offense in Carr’s hands. That matters for a Heisman race because the award usually finds the quarterback whose team wins enough and whose box scores travel nationally. Carr also gets two obvious measuring sticks: at BYU on October 17 and against Miami on November 7. Hold Notre Dame in the playoff picture through those games, add a higher passing share, and the 13% favorite case makes sense without treating him as a runaway leader.
The case for Arch Manning. Manning is the Texas quarterback and the runner-up at 11%, which is still a small number for a player with his name, roster, and late-2025 finish. Sports Illustrated’s betting preview wrote that Manning entered 2025 as the Heisman favorite, opened roughly against UTEP, then improved as the season went on. Its season line: 3,163 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 61.4% completion rate. The broader college football preview added the second-half frame that carries his 2026 price: from the Red Rivalry win over Oklahoma on, Manning had 15 touchdown passes against two interceptions, added six more scores in other ways, and helped Texas finish 7-1 after a 3-2 start. The price is paying for that closing stretch to become the whole season, with Texas giving him enough spotlight games to turn family-name attention into ballots.
The field is real. Darian Mensah is now at Miami after throwing for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke, according to Sports Illustrated’s preseason ranking. Trinidad Chambliss is back at Ole Miss after a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception season and 527 rushing yards. Julian Sayin has already been to New York as a finalist: the Heisman Trust listed him as a 2025 finalist after 3,329 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and a 78.4% completion rate at Ohio State. Those three names combine for 22% on this market. Carr and Manning combine for 24%. That is the wide-open field in one comparison.
The top five add up to 46%, which leaves more than half the market on everyone else. Carr leads, Manning follows, and the market still gives a bigger share to the players outside the top five than to the five names most visible today.
One recent precedent keeps that shape from feeling strange. Before the 2023 season, DraftKings listed Caleb Williams at +450 and Jayden Daniels at +1100. Daniels then won the trophy for LSU, with the Heisman Trust recording him as the 2023 winner. The lesson is narrow: a preseason Heisman market can start with a favorite and still leave room for the second tier to become the story by December.
3 reasons Carr’s 13% chance can still move:
Carr’s October 17 game at BYU and November 7 game against Miami. Manning’s early-season efficiency and whether Texas turns his late-2025 close into a full-season case. First-month stat lines from Mensah, Chambliss, and Sayin. Any official finalist or ceremony timing from the Heisman Trust, ESPN, or Fox as the market runs toward its January 2027 endpoint.