August 19, 2026, ~1:30pm ET
With less than two weeks left in August, Kalshi’s Houston rain ladder has re-centered on a contested “Above 2 inches” line at 41% after a sharp mid-month selloff from 73%.
You’re betting on how much rain Houston records in August 2026 at the CLIHOU climate site. These are nested “Above” thresholds: a wetter month can clear several rungs at once. Put $100 on Above 2 inches at 42% and you get about $229 back if the month finishes above 2.00 inches.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2 inches | 42% | August CLIHOU total > 2.00 inches | ~$229 |
| Above 3 inches | 30% | August CLIHOU total > 3.00 inches | ~$318 |
| Above 4 inches | 11% | August CLIHOU total > 4.00 inches | ~$856 |
| Above 5 inches | 9% | August CLIHOU total > 5.00 inches | ~$1,045 |
Above 1 inch is already near certain on this board. Higher rungs above 5 inches stay listed; only the thresholds that clear get paid.
The case for Above 2 inches. At 41%, this is the live argument on the board. National Weather Service normals put Houston Intercontinental’s August precipitation near 4.84 inches for 1991–2020, so a finished month above 2 inches is usually routine in a Gulf Coast summer. The market disagrees right now because the month is nearly two-thirds done and traders have sold the rung from 73% to 41% in a week, including a 14-point drop on the day. The case that remains is late-August thunderstorms: Houston still has calendar left, and a couple of heavy days can add an inch fast before the month closes.
The case for Above 3 inches. The next rung sits at 26% on the bid. It needs more rain than the 2-inch line and has also been sold hard over seven days on the candle path from the mid-30s toward single digits on some prints. If the rest of August looks like a typical Gulf Coast finish with a few thunderstorm days left, 3 inches is still inside a normal month and below the long-term 4.84-inch average. If the dry stretch continues, this is the first rung that stays No while 2 inches scrapes through on a late storm or two.
The rest of the ladder. Above 4 inches and Above 5 inches are single-digit to low-teens asks. Those are closer to a full normal or wetter August. Above 1 inch is effectively done as a betting question on this pull.
A 41% price on Above 2 inches with a −32 percentage-point week is a market saying the easy clear is no longer easy. The normal month is wetter than 2 inches; the live month may not be.
The useful precedent is last August at the same official climate summary. The National Weather Service’s Houston Intercontinental climate summary for August 2025 listed 2.33 inches of rain against a 4.84-inch normal — wet enough to clear 2 inches, dry enough to miss the long-term average by more than two inches. That is the shape this board is arguing about now: clearing a low rung while still finishing a dry August.
3 reasons the 41% Above 2 inches chance can still move:
Daily CLIHOU precipitation updates through August 31. Any tropical moisture or stalled front in the western Gulf. The final monthly climate summary after the month closes.