Kalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high at Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), which can differ from downtown. The board now treats 77°–78° as the heavy favorite even as a broader Southern California heat wave starts inland.
You’re betting on the highest temperature in the National Weather Service daily climatological report for Los Angeles Airport (KLAX) on July 22, 2026. Only the matching bucket collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 90% | KLAX daily high is 77° or 78°F | ~$110 |
| 79° to 80° | 9% | KLAX daily high is 79° or 80°F | ~$1044 |
| 83° or above | 1% | KLAX daily high is 83°F or hotter | ~$4,999 |
| 74° or below | 1% | KLAX daily high is 74°F or cooler | ~$4,999 |
Downtown Los Angeles can read much hotter on the same day; this market ignores those stations. Kalshi confirms against the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for Los Angeles Airport.
The case for 77°–78°. The National Weather Service point forecast for Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX) on July 22 called for a high near 78°F with a west-southwest wind around 15 mph. Yesterday’s official KLAX maximum was 81°F at 2:01 p.m., and today’s marine layer keeps the airport cooler than inland valleys even as a heat advisory starts across Southern California. Traders have piled into the 77°–78° bucket — now a 90% favorite after a huge afternoon move — because settlement reads the airport CLI report, not downtown thermometers, and afternoon observations have already locked most of the probability into this bin.
The case for 79°–80°. That bucket still holds a 9% chance after collapsing from the mid-30s at midnight ET. A slightly clearer afternoon at the airport can push the daily max one bin hotter without needing downtown’s heat-advisory air. Yesterday’s 81° KLAX reading shows this station can still clear 80° in the same July pattern, so the second bucket is the live underdog if the evening CLI prints hotter than the midday forecast.
77°–78° at 90% and 79°–80° at 9% means the market thinks the airport high is nearly decided. That is the first fact to respect.
The day move is the tell: 77°–78° jumped about 23 percentage points while 79°–80° fell about 31, so afternoon observations have already done most of the work.
2 reasons the 90% bucket can still move:
Evening of July 22, 2026: final KLAX daily climatological report (CLI) high for the calendar day.