The Phillies beat the Dodgers 10-7 on Monday in Philadelphia, and shortstop Trea Turner hit two home runs with five RBIs. Even so, Tuesday’s rematch — Zack Wheeler against Justin Wrobleski — still makes the Phillies only a slight favorite in a near toss-up.
You’re betting on who wins today’s Dodgers–Phillies game in Philadelphia. Only the game winner collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 53% | they win the game, including after extra innings | ~$182 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 48% | they win the game, including after extra innings | ~$201 |
If they delay the game but play it within two days, that result still decides the bet. If the game is cancelled, or moved more than two days later, Kalshi ends the market based on where the odds stood — you can get back more or less than you put in, not a full refund and not the full win.
Kalshi confirms the official league result.
The case for Philadelphia. The Phillies are at home at Citizens Bank Park, and right-hander Zack Wheeler starts — 10 wins and 1 loss, 2.13 earned run average (ERA) in 93 innings. He missed time earlier after a blood clot in his shoulder, then blanked the Detroit Tigers over six innings on July 12 (two hits, 10 strikeouts). In July alone he has 34 strikeouts in 17⅔ innings across three starts. Monday’s 10-7 win opened this series, with Turner’s two homers and five RBIs, plus home runs from Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, and Derek Hill. That is the Phillies case: home field, Wheeler’s season, and last night’s bat.
The case for Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 63-38 and first in the National League (NL) West; the Phillies are 56-45 and second in the NL East. Left-hander Justin Wrobleski starts for Los Angeles — 10 wins and 2 losses, 2.69 ERA — and in his only career start against Philadelphia, on May 29, he held them to one run over seven innings. Outfielder Mookie Betts had four hits and two home runs in Monday’s loss. Wheeler’s career line against the Dodgers is 3 wins and 3 losses with a 4.57 ERA in eight starts — softer than his 2026 season. That is the Dodgers case: better record, Wrobleski’s prior look at this lineup, and a pitcher whose career results against Los Angeles do not match his 2026 dominance.
Philadelphia at 53% and Los Angeles at 48% means the market treats this as nearly even. That is the first fact to respect.
Traders already saw Monday’s 10-7 and still would not make the Dodgers the favorite — even though Los Angeles has the better season record and the season series sits tied 2-2.
The sticky story is Wheeler: 10-1, a 2.13 ERA, and double-digit strikeouts in each July start. Those points are real. They are also easy to overweight in a coin-flip price when the road team is first in its division and already handled this Phillies club once this year.
2 reasons Philadelphia’s 53% chance can still move:
Tuesday, July 21, 6:40pm ET: first pitch at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Wrobleski vs Wheeler.