Kalshi settles on the National Weather Service daily high at Miami International Airport (not every neighborhood thermometer) and prices 92°–93° at 58% for July 23, with 90°–91° next at 28%.
You’re betting on Miami’s official daily high on July 23, 2026. Each temperature bucket is its own side; only the matching NWS airport high collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92° to 93° | 58% | Official high is 92° or 93°F | ~$167 |
| 90° to 91° | 28% | Official high is 90° or 91°F | ~$340 |
| 94° to 95° | 13% | Official high is 94° or 95°F | ~$725 |
| 88° to 89° | 2% | 88° to 89° | ~$4,679 |
| 96° or above | 2% | 96° or above | ~$4,679 |
| 87° or below | 1% | 87° or below | ~$9,352 |
The case for 92° to 93°. The 92°–93° bucket sits at 58%, a clear favorite on a South Florida July board where airport highs often cluster in the low 90s under humidity and sun. NWS point forecasts near Miami International keep that band in view; traders have put a majority-ish share on this two-degree window. That is the 92°–93° case at 58%: the official listed Miami airport station reading — lands in that bin.
The case for 90° to 91°. Why 90°–91° still sits at 28%: afternoon storms or thicker cloud can clip a Miami airport high by a couple of degrees without changing the season’s heat story. Twenty-eight percent is a real cooler bin, not a rounding error under a 90% lock. That is the 90°–91° case at 28%: a slightly milder official high if convection or cloud cover caps the afternoon.
92°–93° at 58% and 90°–91° at 28% means traders lean warm-airport July, with a cooler bin still live; 94°–95° at 13% is the hotter tail.
2 reasons these bins can still move:
Price 92°–93° as the favorite and keep 90°–91° as the main alternate.
July 23, 2026 — NWS daily high at the listed Miami station.