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Favorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Paul Giamatti leads Best Supporting Actor, with Robert Pattinson next and Jeremy Strong still in the soft field.
You’re betting on who wins the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. Each actor is his own side; only the winner collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Giamatti | 29% | Giamatti wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$329 |
| Robert Pattinson | 24% | Pattinson wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$396 |
| Jeremy Strong | 16% | Strong wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$590 |
| John Goodman | 15% | John Goodman | ~$629 |
| Tom Holland | 10% | Tom Holland | ~$941 |
| Sam Rockwell | 8% | Sam Rockwell | ~$1,174 |
The case for Paul Giamatti. Giamatti sits at 29%, a thin edge on a Supporting Actor board that has not crowned a runaway. Wikipedia’s Best Supporting Actor page frames the category as often decided by a single standout performance in a major film; traders have him first without giving him a majority. That is the Giamatti case at 29%: the clearest named favorite in a still-open Oscar lane.
The case for Robert Pattinson. Why Pattinson still sits at 24%: he is inside five points of Giamatti — the parallel-case band — on a field where Strong at 16% keeps third place live. Twenty-four percent is co-favorite weight, not leftover doubt. That is the Pattinson case at 24%: the clearest alternative if Academy voters prefer his performance over Giamatti’s.
Giamatti at 29% and Pattinson at 24% is a soft top; Strong at 16% means this is not a two-horse lock.
2 reasons Giamatti’s 29% can still move:
Respect the open field — 29% is a lead, not a coronation.
Oscar nominations and ceremony for the listed Supporting Actor race.