Kalshi prices Paul Giamatti at 29% to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars, with Robert Pattinson next at 24% on a soft field that still has Jeremy Strong at 16%.
You’re betting on who wins the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. Each actor is his own side; only the winner collects.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Giamatti | 29% | Giamatti wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$329 |
| Robert Pattinson | 24% | Pattinson wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$396 |
| Jeremy Strong | 16% | Strong wins Best Supporting Actor | ~$590 |
| John Goodman | 15% | John Goodman | ~$629 |
| Tom Holland | 10% | Tom Holland | ~$941 |
| Sam Rockwell | 8% | Sam Rockwell | ~$1,174 |
The case for Paul Giamatti. Giamatti sits at 29%, a thin edge on a Supporting Actor board that has not crowned a runaway. Wikipedia’s Best Supporting Actor page frames the category as often decided by a single standout performance in a major film; traders have him first without giving him a majority. That is the Giamatti case at 29%: the clearest named favorite in a still-open Oscar lane.
The case for Robert Pattinson. Why Pattinson still sits at 24%: he is inside five points of Giamatti — the parallel-case band — on a field where Strong at 16% keeps third place live. Twenty-four percent is co-favorite weight, not leftover doubt. That is the Pattinson case at 24%: the clearest alternative if Academy voters prefer his performance over Giamatti’s.
Giamatti at 29% and Pattinson at 24% is a soft top; Strong at 16% means this is not a two-horse lock.
2 reasons Giamatti’s 29% can still move:
Respect the open field — 29% is a lead, not a coronation.
Oscar nominations and ceremony for the listed Supporting Actor race.