August still has two full weeks to run, and SpaceX’s calendar already looks crowded after a back-to-back Falcon 9 night on Aug. 15/16. The August ladder now turns on one question: whether the visible path gets to 14 launches, or whether SpaceX finds room for a 15th.
You’re betting on how many launches SpaceX has in August 2026. Each row is its own Yes/No bet: if August ends at 14 launches, Above 10 through Above 13 all win, while Above 14 and higher lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 100% | SpaceX has more than 10 launches in August 2026 | ~$100 |
| Above 11 | 99% | SpaceX has more than 11 launches in August 2026 | ~$100 |
| Above 12 | 96% | SpaceX has more than 12 launches in August 2026 | ~$103 |
| Above 13 | 75% | SpaceX has more than 13 launches in August 2026 | ~$131 |
| Above 14 | 20% | SpaceX has more than 14 launches in August 2026 | ~$473 |
| Above 15 | 4% | SpaceX has more than 15 launches in August 2026 | ~$2,342 |
| Above 16 | 2% | SpaceX has more than 16 launches in August 2026 | ~$4,679 |
Kalshi confirms the final August count from SpaceX’s launches page. The month ends Aug. 31, and the market is expected to be finalized in early September.
The case for Above 13. More than 13 means 14 or higher, and public launch logs already give traders a clean route. Jonathan McDowell’s latest Space Report lists 8 SpaceX Falcon 9 launches dated Aug. 1 through Aug. 16 UTC, including the Globalstar and USSF-366 pair that flew 38.5 minutes apart. Spaceflight Now’s schedule then shows 6 more SpaceX missions before the month closes: Starlink 17-50 on Aug. 18/19, Starlink 10-39 on Aug. 20, Starlink 15-20 on Aug. 22, 2 Starlink flights on Aug. 25, and a Falcon Heavy launch of NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope no earlier than Aug. 30. That visible path lands exactly on 14. The market’s 75% favorite is pricing that path as more likely to hold than break.
The case for Above 14. More than 14 means 15 or higher, so the 20% case needs one extra flight beyond the visible route to 14, or a count interpretation that gives August one more launch than the simple public checklist. The reason this side still has a price is SpaceX’s cadence. The company just completed 2 Falcon 9 missions in 38.5 minutes on Aug. 15/16, and the remaining schedule already includes launches from both Florida and California. Starlink missions can also appear with short lead times when range, booster, payload, and recovery assets line up. A single additional Starlink slot between Aug. 26 and Aug. 31 would be enough to turn a 14-launch month into 15. That is the Above 14 case at 20%: the listed schedule points to 14, and SpaceX’s pace leaves room for one more.
The ladder is clustered around a 14-launch finish. Above 12 sits at 96%, Above 13 at 75%, and Above 14 at 20%. Read across those thresholds, and the market is putting the biggest chunk of probability on exactly 14: high enough to clear Above 13, short of the 15 needed for Above 14.
That makes the Spaceflight Now schedule the key test. If the 5 Starlink missions from Aug. 18 through Aug. 25 fly and Roman remains on the Aug. 30 Falcon Heavy calendar, the visible path from 8 completed launches reaches 14. The jump from 14 to 15 asks for a bonus launch or a counting wrinkle, which is why Above 14 trails by 55 percentage points even after doubling from 8% to 20% over 7 days.
2 reasons Above 13’s 75% chance can still move:
Aug. 18/19: Starlink 17-50 from Vandenberg.
Aug. 20: Starlink 10-39 from Cape Canaveral.
Aug. 22: Starlink 15-20 from Vandenberg.
Aug. 25: Starlink 10-49 from Cape Canaveral and Starlink 15-22 from Vandenberg.
Aug. 30: Falcon Heavy carrying NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, listed no earlier than that morning.
Aug. 31: the August count closes for Kalshi’s settlement source.