August 19, 2026, ~12:06pm ET
The last major of the year is still two weeks away, and the men’s market is already pricing a favorite who has not played a hard-court match this summer swing. Jannik Sinner leads at 30%, but the seven-day path from 50% shows how fast injury news can rewrite a Slam board.
You’re betting on the player who wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title. Only the champion’s side gets paid after the tournament. Every other listed player loses.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinner | 30% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$318 |
| Alcaraz | 19% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$499 |
| Zverev | 18% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$526 |
| Djokovic | 8% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$1,175 |
| Jodar | 7% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$1,342 |
| Shelton | 7% | he wins the 2026 US Open men’s singles title | ~$1,342 |
Everyone outside these six is part of the same field. If another player wins the title, that player’s side pays and the names above lose.
The case for Sinner. Sinner’s 30% still starts with New York history and ranking. He won the 2024 US Open and reached the 2025 final. Tennis UpToDate reported that he withdrew from Cincinnati with a right knee problem and has missed the North American hard-court swing, leaving him without a tune-up event before Flushing Meadows unless he returns in New York. That is why the price fell from 50% to 30% over seven days. The case that remains is margin: he has won majors without a full lead-in before, and 30% still makes him the first name while pricing a real chance that the knee, or match rust, ends the title defense early.
The case for Alcaraz. Alcaraz sits at 19% after a five-point drop on the day. He is the defending 2025 US Open champion and has been sidelined since April with a right-wrist issue, also skipping Cincinnati. Complex reported that he has been training in Spain and that a decision on whether he plays New York is still pending ahead of the main-draw entry window. His 19% is the market saying the ceiling is still there if he walks onto Arthur Ashe healthy, while the week’s selling says traders will not wait for a clean medical clearance to reprice him.
The rest of the top field. Zverev is 18%, close enough to Alcaraz that Cincinnati’s vacated top seeds matter. Djokovic is 8% and remains entered for the hard-court events the top two skipped. Jodar and Shelton sit near 7%. The field behind Sinner is already large enough that a withdrawal or early exit by either of the top two would redistribute a lot of probability in one session.
Sinner at 30% and Alcaraz at 19% is still a two-name lead, but it is not a lock board. Add Zverev at 18% and the top three already account for 67%. The remaining third of the market is the rest of a deep Slam draw.
The useful precedent is dated and direct. Before the 2024 US Open, sportsbooks listed Carlos Alcaraz as the men’s favorite near +175 to +210, with Novak Djokovic second and Sinner third near +300 to +370, according to Covers and CBS Sports. Sinner won the title. That case shows New York can pay a third-priced hard-court player when the favorite’s path is messy — and it also shows why a 30% number after a 20-point weekly drop is still a contested favorite, not a settled one.
3 reasons Sinner’s 30% chance can still move:
Medical and entry confirmations for Sinner and Alcaraz. The men’s seed list and main draw. Cincinnati results for Zverev and Djokovic. Any late withdrawal that reshapes the top half before the first ball.