August 16, 2026, ~5:20pm ET
The last major of the tennis season is still two weeks from its first main-draw ball, and the women’s field already has a title-defense story, a late-summer form swing, and five former New York champions in the entry list.
You’re betting on the player who wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title. Only the champion’s side gets paid after the tournament. Every other listed player loses.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabalenka | 27% | she wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title | ~$354 |
| Swiatek | 16% | she wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title | ~$597 |
| Rybakina | 11% | she wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title | ~$861 |
| Gauff | 9% | she wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title | ~$1,044 |
| Osaka | 9% | she wins the 2026 US Open women’s singles title | ~$1,044 |
Everyone outside these five is part of the same field. If another player wins the title, that player’s side pays and the five names above lose.
The case for Sabalenka. Sabalenka’s 27% starts with the one fact the rest of the field cannot claim: she is the World No. 1 and the two-time defending champion in New York. The WTA entry-list note says she lifted her fourth major trophy at Flushing Meadows last year and will try to become the first woman to win three straight US Open titles since Serena Williams from 2014 through 2016. That matters because this market is already punishing uncertainty. Her price has slipped from 29% to 27% over seven days, and the field behind her is deep enough that a favorite can lose ground without a single challenger taking over. The best version of the Sabalenka case is still simple: hard courts in New York have been her event lately, and 27% leaves nearly three chances in four for somebody else while still making her the clear first name.
The case for Swiatek. Swiatek’s 16% is the live move in the top tier. She was 10% seven days ago and is now second after a Toronto title run that changed the feel of her summer. The WTA reported that she beat Rybakina 6-2, 6-3 in 75 minutes to win her first title of 2026, her 26th career title, and her 12th WTA 1000 crown. The same run gave her all five major North American titles: Indian Wells, Miami, the US Open, Cincinnati, and Canada. That is the market’s reason to pull her into second. She is still well behind Sabalenka, and 16% says the field remains the larger side of the bet. Her case is that the best recent title in the top group belongs to her, and it came against the player sitting third on this market.
The rest of the top field. Rybakina is 11%, up from 8% over seven days, after reaching the Toronto final and already owning the Australian Open title in 2026. Gauff and Osaka sit at 9% each. The WTA entry list puts both among the former US Open champions directly entered: Gauff as the 2024 champion, Osaka as the 2018 and 2020 champion. That is why the middle of the field matters. Sabalenka can be the correct favorite and still face a bracket where several former champions or current major winners can make the price look thin by the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka at 27% and Swiatek at 16% makes this a favorite-led field without a runaway favorite. Add Rybakina, Gauff, and Osaka, and the five names above account for 72%. The remaining 28% belongs to everyone else in a 128-player draw, including players whose prices are small today but whose bracket path can change once the draw is out.
The useful precedent is recent and direct. Before the 2024 US Open began, published futures odds listed Sabalenka as the women’s favorite near +220 to +250. On September 7, 2024, the day of the final, she was a -333 favorite against Jessica Pegula. She went on to win the title. That precedent does not make 27% cheap or expensive. It shows that New York can reward the obvious hard-court favorite, while the current number still prices a lot of bracket risk before the first round.
3 reasons Sabalenka’s 27% chance can still move:
The seed list and draw release. Any Cincinnati result involving Sabalenka, Swiatek, or Rybakina. Osaka’s physical status after skipping Cincinnati with fatigue. Gauff’s section of the draw, because a former New York champion at 9% can become a much bigger factor if the bracket opens.