Philip Morris International is due to report second-quarter results on July 22, including how many cans of Zyn — its nicotine pouch brand — it shipped in the United States. Traders favor Above 185 million cans, and leave Above 190 million as a near coin flip.
You’re betting on how many cans of Zyn Philip Morris says it shipped in the United States in the second quarter of 2026. Each line in the table is its own Yes/No bet — “did shipments clear this number?” — not a single race where only one winner gets paid. So if the report is 192 million cans, Above 190 million, Above 185 million, and Above 180 million can all pay Yes on that same figure.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180 million | 95% | reported U.S. Zyn shipments are above 180 million cans | ~$104 |
| Above 185 million | 84% | reported U.S. Zyn shipments are above 185 million cans | ~$117 |
| Above 190 million | 54% | reported U.S. Zyn shipments are above 190 million cans | ~$179 |
| Above 195 million | 23% | reported U.S. Zyn shipments are above 195 million cans | ~$412 |
| Above 200 million | 7% | reported U.S. Zyn shipments are above 200 million cans | ~$1,341 |
Other bets on the same report — Above 160 million through Above 175 million — already trade near certainty, about 95% to 99%, so they are left out of the table.
Kalshi confirms the figure from Philip Morris International’s reported U.S. Zyn shipment volume for the quarter.
The case for Above 185 million cans. In its first-quarter report, Philip Morris said U.S. Zyn shipments fell 23.5% from a year earlier, to about 155 million cans — even while Nielsen, the firm that tracks store sales, estimated that what consumers bought still grew about 10%. The company had already put a size on that gap: about 25 million cans of leftover stock sitting with shops and distributors at the end of 2025, which it said shops largely used up in the first quarter — so they ordered less from Philip Morris even as people kept buying. After adjusting for that, Philip Morris put underlying first-quarter volume closer to 175 million cans, and it set a base expectation that second-quarter shipments would track demand around 180 million cans. That is the 185 million case: that leftover stock is supposed to be gone, buying was still growing, and 185 million sits only about 5 million cans above the company’s own second-quarter base.
The case for Above 190 million cans. Why Above 190 million still sits near 54%: in the fourth quarter of 2025, U.S. Zyn shipments already reached 196 million cans. Getting over 190 million would still be below that fourth-quarter figure. Philip Morris’s own second-quarter base is only about 180 million cans — roughly 16 million below that Q4 ship — so 190 million needs the report to land closer to that fourth-quarter pace than to the company’s Q2 guide. That is the 190 million case at 54%: fourth-quarter 2025 already shipped more than 190 million cans, and the company’s Q2 base still sits about 10 million cans under that line.
Traders put an 84% chance on U.S. Zyn shipments above 185 million cans — and about a 16% chance the report comes in at 185 million or below.
Above 180 million cans is already treated as nearly certain at 95%. Above 185 million is next at 84%. Above 190 million falls to 54%, and Above 195 million to 23%. The biggest gap is between 185 and 190 — that is where traders disagree most.
At 54%, traders are roughly even on whether second-quarter shipments look more like the company’s ~180 million base or more like fourth-quarter 2025’s 196 million cans.
2 reasons Above 185 million’s 84% chance can still move:
July 22, 2026: Philip Morris International second-quarter results, including U.S. Zyn shipment volume.