Price unavailable — showing last known.
August 16, 2026, 9:10am ET
Citigroup’s CEO is telling lawmakers she wants a workable Clarity Act to pass. On Kalshi, “pass next year at 50%” is the wrong headline: enactment by the end of this year sits near 24%, and even the long deadline into 2028 is only about 45%.
You’re betting on when the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes law — signed after both chambers pass it. These sides stack by deadline: a later date includes every earlier date. A bill that clears only the Senate, or only the House again, does not pay.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45% | the Clarity Act / a crypto market structure bill becomes law by December 31, 2027 | ~$214 |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 41% | becomes law by September 30, 2027 | ~$234 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 33% | becomes law by June 30, 2027 | ~$281 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 31% | becomes law by March 31, 2027 | ~$308 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 24% | becomes law by December 31, 2026 | ~$396 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 20% | becomes law by November 30, 2026 | ~$473 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 10% | becomes law by September 30, 2026 | ~$941 |
Example: law on March 15, 2027 pays Before Apr 1, 2027 and every later deadline in this table, and loses Before Jan 1, 2027. Kalshi confirms against congress.gov.
The case for law sometime before 2028. Before Jan 1, 2028 sits at 45%. The House already passed H.R. 3633 in July 2025, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed on August 8, 2026 — setting a September 15, 2026 procedural vote at 2:15 p.m. ET (U.S. Senate Daily Press). Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser told Fox Business she still wants improvements on stablecoin rewards, and also wants “a good bill” to go through because she thinks it would be “excellent for the system” (crypto.news report of that interview). Banks and crypto firms are still fighting over whether platform rewards act like deposit interest. That fight can slow a bill without killing the multi-year window traders keep open into late 2027.
The case against a 2026 finish. Before Jan 1, 2027 is only 24%, down from 29% over seven days. Before Sep 1, 2026 is about 1%. Cloture on September 15 is not final passage: supporters still need 60 votes to limit debate on taking up the bill, then more floor time, likely a second cloture, and a House sign-off if the Senate changes the text (Bitcoin.com / Paul Hastings explainers of the same Aug. 8 filing). The Senate calendar is thin into the November midterms. Subtract the 24% year-end price from the 45% before-2028 price and traders are only implying about 21% for enactment during calendar 2027 — far from a coin-flip “next year” claim.
Before Jan 1, 2028 at 45% and Before Jan 1, 2027 at 24% means traders lean against a 2026 law — and they are not pricing a clean 50% for next year either.
2 reasons a Citi headline can outrun the ladder:
Grant the bank’s public support — then read the nearer deadlines before you treat 50% as Kalshi’s number.
September 15, 2026, 2:15 p.m. ET: Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633. Whip counts on Democratic votes for 60. Any stablecoin-rewards rewrite before floor action. December 31, 2026: deadline for the Before Jan 1, 2027 side.