Kalshi’s Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth ladder prices Above 1.0% at 91% and Above 1.5% at 84%, with Above 2.0% near 51% — separate Yes/No bets on the same BEA growth figure.
You’re betting on U.S. real GDP growth for second-quarter 2026. Each “Above X%” line is its own Yes/No bet on the same BEA print — if growth is 1.8%, Above 1.5% and Above 1.0% can both pay Yes.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 100% | Above 0.0% | — |
| Above 0.5% | 99% | Above 0.5% | ~$101 |
| Above 1.0% | 91% | Q2 GDP growth is above 1.0% | ~$109 |
| Above 1.5% | 84% | Q2 GDP growth is above 1.5% | ~$118 |
| Above 2.0% | 51% | Q2 GDP growth is above 2.0% | ~$190 |
| Above 2.5% | 23% | Above 2.5% | ~$413 |
Lower strikes near certainty remain on Kalshi; Above 2.0% is the clearer debate further down.
The case for Above 1.0%. Above 1.0% sits at 91% because traders mostly expect second-quarter growth to clear a 1% annualized line when BEA prints the figure. BEA’s GDP pages describe this as the headline measure of U.S. output growth; the ladder is not picking one winner among teams — it is stacking thresholds on one number. That is the Above 1.0% case at 91%: Q2 growth finishes north of 1%.
The case for Above 1.5%. Why Above 1.5% still sits at 84%: it is only seven points behind Above 1.0%, so traders see a modest step up as likely even while Above 2.0% collapses toward a coin flip near 51%. The −5.0 percentage-point day move on Above 1.5% shows the board cooling on a hotter print without abandoning the mid-1% band. That is the Above 1.5% case at 84%: Q2 growth clears 1.5%, even if 2% remains contested.
Above 1.0% at 91% and Above 1.5% at 84% means the mid-1% band is favored; Above 2.0% near 51% is where disagreement concentrates.
2 reasons these strikes can still move:
The market has soft growth floors mostly locked and the 2% line as the live debate.
BEA’s Q2 2026 GDP release (Kalshi’s July 30 event window).