Prediction market analysis
Be the wisdom, not the crowd
Fed, inflation, jobs, and macro ladders.
Social posts are floating an “80% chance of a Fed hike next year.” On Kalshi’s next-hike ladder, a…
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish August’s U.S. unemployment rate — the U-3 measure —…
Kalshi’s July CPI ladder prices Above −0.1% at 89% and Above 0.0% at 61% — separate Yes/No bets…
Kalshi has Fed maintains rate near 66% (Hike 25bps 33%) on Fed decision in Sep 2026?.
The July Federal Reserve meeting is days away, and traders have stopped treating a hold as nearly certain.
Kalshi’s Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth ladder prices Above 1.0% at 91% and Above 1.5% at 84%, with…
The Fed’s next statement lands July 29. The target range already sits at 3.50%–3.75%. The live debate in…
