Kalshi prices Vice President J.D. Vance at 40% to be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio next at 30% on a board that still leaves room for the rest of the field.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 40% | If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$240 |
| Marco Rubio | 30% | If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$318 |
| Ron DeSantis | 5.4% | If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$1,737 |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4.2% | If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$2,231 |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.5% | If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$3,744 |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.1% | If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | ~$4,457 |
The case for JD Vance. Vance sits at 40% as the sitting vice president on a nomination board that usually rewards proximity to the party’s last winning ticket. Wikipedia’s biography frames him as Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate elevated to national office — the institutional inside lane when Republicans pick a 2028 standard-bearer. Forty percent is a real favorite’s share without being a lock: Rubio at 30% keeps this from looking like a coronation, and the rest of the field still holds a combined slice large enough to matter if the party fragments. That is the Vance case at 40%: the clearest heir-apparent price on a multi-year primary calendar that has not started.
The case for Marco Rubio. Why Rubio still sits at 30%: he is within ten points of Vance after a −1.0 percentage-point day, the second ticket on a ladder that otherwise drops to DeSantis in the single digits. Rubio’s path is national security résumé plus Florida politics — a secretary of state profile that can read as a broader primary coalition than a vice president alone. Thirty percent is co-favorite weight on a full parallel case, not leftover doubt. That is the Rubio case at 30%: the priced alternative if Republicans want a different headliner than the sitting VP.
Vance at 40% and Rubio at 30% is a two-lane race at the top; DeSantis near 5% is not in the same band.
2 reasons Vance’s 40% can still move:
Treat Vance as favorite and Rubio as a live second — not a formality.
2026 midterms and early 2027 endorsement / exploratory signals; the nominee is seated by the 2028 Republican convention.