Price unavailable — showing last known.
August 19, 2026, ~12:06pm ET
Kalshi prices Gadi Eisenkot near 66% to be the first new Israeli prime minister after this market’s start — a heavy favorite on a board where every other named candidate is in single digits, and where today’s tape is almost idle.
You’re betting on who becomes the next Israeli prime minister after Benjamin Netanyahu in the sense the rules define: the first new person to hold the office after this market opened. Only that person’s side gets paid.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | 67% | Eisenkot is the first new prime minister after issuance | ~$146 |
| Naftali Bennett | 13% | Bennett is the first new prime minister after issuance | ~$726 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 11% | Lieberman is the first new prime minister after issuance | ~$856 |
| Israel Katz | 9% | Katz is the first new prime minister after issuance | ~$1,045 |
| Yair Lapid | 5% | Lapid is the first new prime minister after issuance | ~$1,737 |
Other listed names remain on the board. Spreads are wide on several lower lines, and 24-hour volume on this pull was effectively flat — read the secondary prices as thin.
The case for Eisenkot. Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, leads the Yashar party and has become the main challenger to Netanyahu ahead of elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, per NPR and Wikipedia’s election page. The Jerusalem Post reported a poll with Yashar ahead of Likud on seats and Eisenkot leading Netanyahu in preferred-prime-minister numbers. The New Yorker described him as the opposition figure with the best current chance to unseat Netanyahu while still warning that coalition politics can block a government. Kalshi’s 66% is the market translating that polling lead into a succession bet — with the important caveat that Israel’s prime minister is chosen through coalition arithmetic, not a direct popular vote.
The case for Bennett. Bennett is 6% on the last trade path and about 13% on the ask, which tells you how wide the secondary market is. He remains a former prime minister and a possible coalition pivot if opposition lists bargain over who gets the first mandate. The New Yorker noted that Eisenkot could emerge as the opposition’s leading figure and still fail to assemble 61 seats. That coalition gap is why a 6% Bennett line can matter even when Eisenkot looks like a runaway favorite on the first page of the board, and why the ask-bid gap here should be read as thin liquidity rather than a settled second place.
The rest of the field. Lieberman, Katz, Lapid, and others sit in low single digits on bids. They are coalition and contingency names: people who could end up as the compromise prime minister if the October results refuse to produce a clean Eisenkot government.
Eisenkot at 66% versus Bennett at 6% is a heavy favorite board. The seven-day rise from 61% to 66% shows traders adding to that lead rather than fading it. Thin daily volume means the number can look steadier than the underlying politics.
The useful rethink fact is institutional, not anecdotal. Israeli governments are built in the Knesset. A party can “win” the campaign narrative and still miss 61 seats. Eisenkot’s 66% is therefore a statement about who traders expect to clear that bar first — not a claim that the October vote alone names a prime minister on election night.
3 reasons Eisenkot’s 66% chance can still move:
October 27 election results and seat counts. Coalition negotiation headlines in the days after. Any Netanyahu resignation or succession event before election day that would settle the market early under the “first new person” rule.