Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, said Monday she will run for a full term — with President Donald Trump’s endorsement already in hand. The same day, U.S. Rep. Russell Fry announced he is running for the Senate seat too. Traders make Nordone the clear favorite for the August 11 Republican special primary — the vote that picks the party’s Senate nominee for November.
You’re betting on who wins South Carolina’s Republican special primary for U.S. Senate — the vote that picks the party’s Senate nominee for November. After a nominee is chosen, only that candidate’s side gets paid. The other sides lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham Nordone | 69% | she wins the special primary (or a second election if no one gets more than half the votes on August 11) | ~$141 |
| Russell Fry | 17% | he wins the special primary (or a second election if no one gets more than half the votes on August 11) | ~$555 |
| Ralph Norman | 13% | he wins the special primary (or a second election if no one gets more than half the votes on August 11) | ~$725 |
| Mark Lynch | 2% | he wins the special primary (or a second election if no one gets more than half the votes on August 11) | ~$4,679 |
| Pamela Evette | 2% | she wins the special primary (or a second election if no one gets more than half the votes on August 11) | ~$4,679 |
Other candidates in this market are listed near 1% each. New candidates can still enter this primary from July 21 through July 28 — so the listed field can still change before August.
Kalshi confirms the winner from official South Carolina election results.
The case for Darline Graham Nordone. Sen. Darline Graham Nordone is Lindsey Graham’s younger sister. After he died on July 11, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed her to finish Graham’s Senate term through early January, and she was sworn into the Senate last week. On Friday, July 17, President Donald Trump said he had asked her to run in the August 11 special primary and gave her his “complete and total endorsement.” On Monday, July 20, she said she is running for a full six-year term. Traders moved her chance from about 6% a week ago to 69% today after that endorsement and her Monday announcement. That is the Nordone case: she already holds the seat, she has Trump’s endorsement in a Republican primary, and she is Lindsey Graham’s sister running to keep the seat in the family.
The case for Russell Fry. Why Republican U.S. Rep. Russell Fry still sits at 17%: the Myrtle Beach-area congressman announced his Senate bid Monday as a “conservative MAGA candidate,” after Trump had already endorsed Nordone. He is already the Republican nominee for his House seat in November, and South Carolina election rules let him appear on the ballot for both offices — so he can keep running for Senate without giving up his House path. That is the leftover case at 17%: a sitting House member who can run for Senate without abandoning November, and who entered only after Trump had already endorsed Nordone — with three weeks left for primary voters to pick someone else.
69% means traders see Nordone as the most likely Republican nominee — and still give about a 31% chance that someone else wins the special primary.
Put the top of the field side by side. Nordone is at 69%. Fry is at 17%. Norman is at 13%. Businessman Mark Lynch and South Carolina Lt. Governor Pamela Evette sit at 2% each. Nordone holds more than two-thirds of the top; Fry and Norman together are about 30%.
Trump’s endorsement and the governor’s appointment explain why Nordone sits near 70%. Candidates can still enter through July 28. August 11 is only a few weeks of campaigning away — and if no one gets more than half the votes that day, South Carolina holds a second election on August 25 between the top two finishers.
3 reasons Nordone’s 69% chance can still move:
August 11, 2026: South Carolina Republican special primary. If no one gets more than half the votes, a second election between the top two is August 25, 2026.