The July Federal Reserve meeting is days away, and traders have stopped treating a hold as nearly certain. Leaving rates unchanged is still the favorite — but a quarter-point hike is back as a real minority case after a sharp week in the odds.
You’re betting on what the Fed does with rates at its July 28–29 meeting. After the meeting, only the side that matches the Fed’s move gets paid. The other sides lose.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 76% | leaves rates unchanged, or the meeting is canceled | ~$132 |
| Hike ¼ pt | 24% | raises by exactly ¼ point | ~$417 |
| Hike by more | 2% | raises by more than ¼ point (for example, ½ point) | ~$5,000 |
| Cut ¼ pt | 1% | cuts by exactly ¼ point | ~$10,000 |
| Cut by more | 1% | cuts by more than ¼ point | ~$10,000 |
Kalshi confirms the decision from the Federal Reserve’s announcement.
The case for a hold. Hold sits at 76% — still the favorite, but far from the mid-month spike that briefly treated July as settled. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data through June put the unemployment rate at 4.2%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the government’s main inflation gauge — ran about 3.5% over the year in June after touching about 4.3% in May. That mix does not force a cut, and it does not force a hike either: the New York Fed’s effective federal funds rate on July 22 sat near 3.63% inside the 3.50%–3.75% target band, so leaving the band alone is still the cleanest match to “no change.” Traders who bought the mid-month hold spike near 96% have already been wrong once about certainty. That is the hold case at 76%: July 29 can still be a status-quo meeting even after traders stopped treating it as nearly certain.
The case for a hike a quarter point. Why a quarter-point hike still sits near 24%: this is no longer leftover doubt. In seven days the hike side climbed from about 4% to the low twenties while hold fell about twenty points from 96% — a move that says traders reopened a real alternative. June’s CPI year-over-year print near 3.5% cooled from May’s hotter reading, but it is still well above the soft ~2.4% year-over-year pace earlier in 2026, and unemployment near 4.2% has not broken higher in a way that would force an easy pause narrative. At roughly one-in-four, a hike is a live minority case into a meeting days away — not a rounding error. That is the hike case at 24%: the Fed raises by a quarter point on July 29, and the people who sold hold after the mid-month spike get paid for that risk.
Hold at 76% and a quarter-point hike at 24% means July is favored to stay put — and also that traders no longer treat a hike as a rounding error.
2 reasons Hold’s 76% chance can still move before July 29:
Grant the favorite — then respect the rebuilt hike price.
July 28–29, 2026: Fed meeting; rate decision due July 29. After the announcement, only the side that matches what the Fed does gets paid.