September hold is the favorite now, but a hike at 35% is far from done

The September hold has moved from a coin flip to a clear favorite — but 35% on a quarter-point hike means traders still see this meeting as genuinely open.

Economics · Fed — August 8, 2026, 5:35pm ET

Snapshot

Fed maintains rate: 66% chance, not available on the day
Hike 25 basis points: 35% chance, not available on the day
7d movement: Fed maintains rate 50% → 66%; Hike 25 basis points 48% → 35%
24h volume: ~$4.5M
Resolution: Fed decision at the September 2026 meeting

How this market pays

You're betting on the Fed's September 2026 policy decision. After the meeting, only the side that matches the Fed's move gets paid. The other sides lose.

Your bet	Chance	Wins if…	$100 bet pays
Fed maintains rate	66%	Fed holds the target range in September 2026, or the meeting is canceled	~$148
Hike 25 basis points	35%	Fed raises rates by exactly a quarter point in September 2026	~$277
Cut 25 basis points	2%	Fed cuts by exactly a quarter point in September 2026	~$4,851
Cut >25 basis points	1%	Fed cuts by more than a quarter point in September 2026	~$9,851
Hike >25 basis points	1%	Fed raises by more than a quarter point in September 2026	~$9,851

Kalshi confirms the decision from the Federal Reserve's official announcement.

How to look at each side

The case for Fed maintains rate. Hold has moved 16 percentage points since the original publish — from a coin flip to a clear majority at 66%. The Federal Reserve's own framework for monetary policy centers on data dependence: absent a clear signal that inflation is reaccelerating, the committee's prior pattern has been to hold at a meeting where the last move was already a hike. That discipline gives the hold case structural support beyond a single print. Sixty-six percent is a real lean, not a mandate — but it reflects a genuine shift in what traders expect incoming data to show. That is the hold case at 66%: enough clarity on the inflation path that sitting still in September is the path of least resistance.

The case for Hike 25 basis points. A hike at 35% is no longer a near-even alternative, but it is far from leftover doubt. One-in-three odds on a policy move means traders have meaningful conviction that the data between now and the September meeting could still tip the committee toward action. A quarter-point hike is the priced path if incoming inflation prints keep the Fed leaning restrictive. Cuts remain a marginal afterthought near 2%. The hike case at 35% is a real, priced alternative — the kind of number that moves fast when a single CPI release or Fed speech lands the wrong way.

What the odds are saying

Hold at 66% means the September meeting is no longer a pure coin flip — but 35% on a hike keeps it well short of a foregone conclusion.

The board has moved 16 points on the hold side since this article first ran. That is a meaningful shift, but a rate decision this far out can reprice just as fast in the other direction.

2 reasons the 66% hold can still move:

One inflation surprise. A single CPI or PCE print running hotter than expected can shove ten or more points between hold and hike in a session. The September decision is close enough that there are only a handful of data releases left to land.
Fed communication before the meeting. A chair signal — at Jackson Hole or in the weeks before the meeting — can reprice this overnight without any new data. The 66% reflects current expectations; a hawkish surprise in Fed language would reset them.

The hold is the favorite. Respect the 35% before treating September as settled.

What to watch

Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs releases before the September 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, plus any Fed communications — including the Jackson Hole symposium — that signal the committee's current lean.