The Fed’s next statement lands July 29. The target range already sits at 3.50%–3.75%. The live debate in this market is whether the upper bound moves above 3.75% — a hike — or stays put.
You’re betting on how high the upper bound of the federal funds target range sits after the July 29 announcement. Each line is its own Yes/No — “is the published upper bound above this number?” — so a hike to 4.00% can pay several easier Above bets at once.
| Your bet | Chance | Wins if… | $100 bet pays |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.50% | 100% | upper bound greater than 3.50% after the meeting | ~$100 |
| Above 3.75% | 23% | upper bound greater than 3.75% (a hike from today’s 3.75% ceiling) | ~$412 |
| Above 4.00% | 2% | upper bound greater than 4.00% | ~$4,679 |
Example: if the Fed hikes a quarter point to a 3.75%–4.00% range, Above 3.50% and Above 3.75% can both pay Yes; Above 4.00% stays No. Kalshi confirms the upper bound from the Federal Reserve’s official publication.
The case for Above 3.75% (a hike). The Fed has held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% since the start of 2026, per the July Monetary Policy Report. CME-based tools on July 22 still show a meaningful hike minority — Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor put a move to 3.75%–4.00% near 36%, while a FedWatch summary put the hold closer to 73%. This Kalshi line at 23% is the hike bet: the published upper bound has to leave 3.75%.
The case against (hold path). Hold is still the base case in futures tools, and Above 3.75% at 23% means traders mostly expect the ceiling to stay at 3.75%. Above 3.50% already prices as locked because today’s upper bound is already 3.75%. The hold case is simple: July 29 looks like another statement at the same range.
Above 3.75% at 23% and Above 4.00% at 2% means the market is pricing a possible quarter-point hike, not a larger jump. That is the first fact to respect.
The day move matters: Above 3.75% jumped about eight percentage points since midnight ET, so the hike minority got louder into the final week before the meeting.
2 reasons the 23% hike price can still move:
Wednesday, July 29, 2:00pm ET: FOMC statement; 2:30pm ET press conference.