Kalshi prediction market analysis

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Sports · Baseball

St. Louis vs Chicago C Winner?

St. Louis vs Chicago C Winner?updated — Aug 14Open on Kalshi
CHC1.6x64%
LOUIS2.7x37%
$650K volume2 related markets

Kalshi has Chicago C near 63% (St. Louis 38%) on St. Louis vs Chicago C. That is a clear favorite on a two-team board. About $391K has traded on this board.

Pays on who wins the game — not the spread or total. $100 on Chicago C near 63% returns about $159 if they win (before fees); St. Louis near 38% returns about $263.

Clay Holmes is listed for Chicago C; Matthew Liberatore for St. Louis. On the season they sit 71-51 and 61-60. Over the last 5 games, Chicago C went 3-2 and St. Louis went 3-2.

Game context

  1. Starting pitchers Matthew Liberatore for St. Louis; Clay Holmes for Chicago C.
  2. Season record St. Louis 61-60; Chicago C 71-51.
  3. Last five games St. Louis went 3-2 in their last 5; Chicago C went 3-2.

When will this market get resolved?

Resolves when the game ends — scheduled for Aug 14, 2026 at 2:20 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days).

Sources

  • MLB Stats API — Listed starters, season records, and results from recent games.