Prediction market analysis

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Sports · Baseball

Boston vs Miami

Boston vs Miamisettled — Aug 26, 2026, 4:01pm ETOpen on Kalshi
MIAMI100%
$2.9M volume2 related markets

Kalshi has Boston near 57% (Miami 44%) on Boston vs Miami. That is a solid edge, not a toss-up. About $246K has traded on this board.

Pays on who wins the game — not the spread or total. $100 on Boston near 57% returns about $175 if they win (before fees); Miami near 44% returns about $227.

Sonny Gray is listed for Boston; Ryan Gusto for Miami. On the season they sit 73-59 and 67-66. Over the last 5 games, Boston went 5-0 and Miami went 3-2.

Game context

  1. Starting pitchers Sonny Gray for Boston; Ryan Gusto for Miami.
  2. Season record Boston 73-59; Miami 67-66.
  3. Last five games Boston went 5-0 in their last 5; Miami went 3-2.

When will this market get resolved?

Resolves when the game ends — scheduled for Aug 26, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days).

Sources

  • MLB Stats API — Listed starters, season records, and results from recent games.