Prediction market analysis

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Sports · Baseball

Game 1: Chicago WS vs Cleveland

Game 1: Chicago WS vs Clevelandsettled — Oct 3, 2026, 1:56pm ETOpen on Kalshi
WS100%
$2.2M volume2 related markets

Kalshi has Cleveland near 59% (Chicago WS 43%) on Game 1: Chicago WS vs Cleveland. That is a solid edge, not a toss-up. About $310K has traded on this board.

Pays on who wins the game — not the spread or total. $100 on Cleveland near 59% returns about $169 if they win (before fees); Chicago WS near 43% returns about $233.

Parker Messick is listed for Cleveland; Hagen Smith for Chicago WS. On the season they sit 0-0 and 0-0. Over the last 5 games, Cleveland went 3-2 and Chicago WS went 4-1.

Game context

  1. Starting pitchers Hagen Smith for Chicago WS; Parker Messick for Cleveland.
  2. Season record Chicago WS 0-0; Cleveland 0-0.
  3. Last five games Chicago WS went 4-1 in their last 5; Cleveland went 3-2.

When will this market get resolved?

Resolves when the game ends — scheduled for Oct 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days).

Sources

  • MLB Stats API — Listed starters, season records, and results from recent games.