Prediction market analysis

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Sports · Baseball

Game 4: Cleveland vs Chicago WS

Game 4: Cleveland vs Chicago WSsettled — Oct 8, 2026, 10:55pm ETOpen on Kalshi
CLEVELAND100%
$13M volume2 related markets

Kalshi has Cleveland near 98% (Chicago WS 3%) on Game 4: Cleveland vs Chicago WS. That is a clear favorite on a two-team board. About $13.3M has traded on this board.

Pays on who wins the game — not the spread or total. $100 on Cleveland near 98% returns about $102 if they win (before fees); Chicago WS near 3% returns about $3333.

Parker Messick is listed for Cleveland; Hagen Smith for Chicago WS. On the season they sit 1-2 and 2-1. Over the last 5 games, Cleveland went 2-3 and Chicago WS went 4-1.

Game context

  1. Starting pitchers Parker Messick for Cleveland; Hagen Smith for Chicago WS.
  2. Season record Cleveland 1-2; Chicago WS 2-1.
  3. Last five games Cleveland went 2-3 in their last 5; Chicago WS went 4-1.

When will this market get resolved?

Resolves when the game ends — scheduled for Oct 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days).

Sources

  • MLB Stats API — Listed starters, season records, and results from recent games.