Squarefade — Be the wisdom, not the crowd

Nobody has formally entered the 2028 Democratic presidential race. National surveys in July still put Kamala Harris first; Kalshi prices California Governor Gavin Newsom as the favorite anyway.

Elections · 2028 — July 22, 2026, 5:50pm ET

Traders put nearly even money on WTI revisiting $115 before year-end
How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01 OR ABO…2.1x47.5%
$120.01 OR ABO…2.5x39.6%
$6.3M volume10 related markets
A 48% chance WTI revisits $115 before year-end still leaves $120-plus with real room after this week’s Middle…
Commodities · Oil & Gas — July 24, 2026, 1:53pm ET
Brent’s July 31 5pm print is a coin flip above $91 after this week’s $100 close
Brent crude oil price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
ABOVE $50.991.0x100%
ABOVE $52.991.0x100%
$162K volume30 related markets
The July 31 Brent ladder is days away from a single 5pm ET Pyth print — not today’s…
Commodities · Oil & Gas — July 24, 2026, 1:53pm ET
Traders lean toward more than 13 SpaceX launches in July
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
ABOVE 101.0x100%
ABOVE 111.0x100%
$641K volume8 related markets
SpaceX has already completed 10 launches in July through July 21. Traders put a 79% chance on clearing…
Tech & science · Space — July 24, 2026, 12:04pm ET
July Fed hold cools to 76% as hike odds rebuild
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
FED MAINTAINS …1.3x76%
HIKE 25BPS4.2x24%
$35M volume5 related markets
The July Federal Reserve meeting is days away, and traders have stopped treating a hold as nearly certain.
Economics · Fed — July 23, 2026, 9:09pm ET
Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?
BEFORE JAN 4, …13.3x7.5%
$9.1M volume1 related market
The January 4, 2027 deadline is still on the calendar, and traders treat the SAVE Act becoming law…
Politics · Congress — July 22, 2026, 6:46pm ET
Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor
GIAMATTI3.4x29%
PATTINSON4.2x24%
$18.1K volume22 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Paul Giamatti leads Best Supporting Actor, with Robert Pattinson…
Culture · Oscars — July 22, 2026, 6:46pm ET
Ella Langley runs away with Best New Artist
Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
LANGLEY1.1x95%
GEESE50.0x2%
$58K volume40 related markets
Traders have stopped treating Best New Artist as an open race — Ella Langley has pulled almost all…
Culture · Grammys — July 22, 2026, 6:46pm ET
September Fed decision is a coin flip between hold and a hike
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
FED MAINTAINS …2.0x50%
HIKE 25BPS2.1x48%
$293K volume5 related markets
A 50% chance of a September hold still leaves a quarter-point hike nearly even money — neither side…
Economics · Fed — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
DONALDS1.0x96.8%
FISHBACK35.7x2.8%
$10M volume9 related markets
The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is still on the calendar, and traders treat U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds…
Elections · Governor — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.9x54%
REPUBLICAN PAR…2.9x34%
$98.9K volume3 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than a clean two-party story: Democrats lead Republicans to hold more governorships after…
Elections · Governor — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Q2 GDP: traders see Above 1.5% as likely, Above 2% as a coin flip
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
ABOVE 0.0%1.0x100%
ABOVE 0.5%1.0x99%
$172K volume9 related markets
Kalshi’s Q2 2026 U.S. GDP growth ladder prices Above 1.0% at 91% and Above 1.5% at 84%, with…
Economics · GDP — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%
CPI in July
ABOVE -0.3%1.0x100%
ABOVE -0.4%1.0x100%
$201K volume10 related markets
Kalshi’s July CPI ladder prices Above −0.1% at 87% and Above 0.0% at 67% — separate Yes/No bets…
Economics · Inflation — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination
2028 Republican presidential nominee
J.D. VANCE2.5x40%
RUBIO3.3x30%
$53M volume38 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Vice President J.D. Vance leads Secretary of State Marco…
Elections · 2028 — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. House?
DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.2x83%
REPUBLICAN PAR…5.6x18%
$18M volume2 related markets
An 83% chance Democrats win the U.S. House in 2026 still leaves Republicans a thin path on a…
Elections · House — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
REPUBLICAN PAR…1.8x56%
DEMOCRATIC PAR…2.2x45%
$6.1M volume2 related markets
Traders have stopped treating Senate control as a House-style blowout — Republicans hold only a thin edge over…
Elections · Senate — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Lakers jump to 60% for Bronny’s next team before October
What will be Bronny James's next team?
L1.7x60%
MIAMI4.3x23%
$405K volume31 related markets
Kalshi now prices the Los Angeles Lakers at 60% to be Bronny James’s team before October 23, 2026,…
Sports · Basketball — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second
Pro Baseball Champion
D2.9x34.3%
Y7.7x13%
$36M volume30 related markets
Kalshi’s 2026 pro baseball champion market still prices the Los Angeles Dodgers as a clear favorite into late…
Sports · Baseball — July 22, 2026, 6:40pm ET
OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title
2027 Pro Basketball Champion
OKLAHOMA CITY4.5x22%
ANTONIO5.0x20%
$11M volume30 related markets
Kalshi’s 2027 pro basketball champion market is a two-horse open at the top: Oklahoma City at 22% and…
Sports · Basketball — July 22, 2026, 6:40pm ET
Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or board with Yamal the clear chase
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
KANE2.2x45%
YAMAL4.0x25%
$4.7M volume31 related markets
Kalshi prices Harry Kane as the 2026 Ballon d’Or favorite at 45%, with Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal next…
Sports · Soccer — July 22, 2026, 6:40pm ET
Traders put a real minority on a July hike clearing 3.75%
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
ABOVE 2.75%1.0x100%
ABOVE 3.00%1.0x100%
$2.6M volume11 related markets
The Fed’s next statement lands July 29. The target range already sits at 3.50%–3.75%. The live debate in…
Economics · Fed — July 22, 2026, 5:50pm ET
Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath
Will Democrats win the Senate race in North Carolina?
COOPER1.1x90.8%
WHATLEY9.1x11%
2 related markets
North Carolina’s former governor Roy Cooper is the Democratic nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Traders…
Elections · Senate — July 20, 2026, 2:41pm ET
Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
GRAHAM1.4x71%
NORMAN5.0x20%
11 related markets
Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, said Monday she will run for…
Elections · Primaries — July 20, 2026, 4:11pm ET
Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide
LeBron James has spent recent weeks in Akron with family and friends, still without saying when he will…
Sports · Basketball — July 20, 2026, 12:40pm ET
Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household
Who will win Big Brother?
VALLADARES5.6x18%
PFEIFFER9.1x11%
17 related markets
Dee Valladares, who won season 45 of the CBS show Survivor, entered Big Brother Season 28 as a…
Culture · Big Brother — July 21, 2026, 1:48pm ET

Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris

Traders put nearly even money on WTI revisiting $115 before year-end

Brent’s July 31 5pm print is a coin flip above $91 after this week’s $100 close

Traders lean toward more than 13 SpaceX launches in July

July Fed hold cools to 76% as hike odds rebuild

Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027

Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor

Ella Langley runs away with Best New Artist

September Fed decision is a coin flip between hold and a hike

Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination

Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026

Q2 GDP: traders see Above 1.5% as likely, Above 2% as a coin flip

July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%

Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026

Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026

Lakers jump to 60% for Bronny’s next team before October

Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second

OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title

Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or board with Yamal the clear chase

Traders put a real minority on a July hike clearing 3.75%

Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath

Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement

Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide

Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household