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No party has held the White House more than two straight terms since the early 1950s, with one exception: the Republicans' twelve-year run from 1981 to 1993. This…

By Hunter Gebron

Elections · 2028 — Aug 10, 2026

Lakers near 84% for Bronny's next team as the board clears out

Sports

Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement

Elections

Oil's war premium has faded — but $115 before year-end still has a real price

Commodities

Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or board with Yamal the clear chase

Sports

Claude leads year-end best-AI odds near 65%
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?updated — Aug 11
CLAUDE1.5x67%
CHATGPT6.7x14.9%
$8.5M volume8 related markets
On LM Arena’s text leaderboard as of early August, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 sits at number one, with…
Tech & science · AI — August 8, 2026, 10:30pm ET
The Rams lead the 2027 Super Bowl market after trading for Myles Garrett
2027 Pro Football Championupdated — Aug 11
R6.3x16%
BUFFALO12.5x8%
$58M volume32 related markets
The Los Angeles Rams sit alone atop the 2027 pro football champion market at 16% after adding Myles…
Sports · Football — August 8, 2026, 10:30pm ET
Bitcoin’s year-end ladder favors $65k–$70k while spot sits on the line
BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?updated — Aug 11
65,000 TO 69,9…6.8x14.6%
60,000 TO 64,9…9.0x11.1%
$31M volume28 related markets
Bitcoin is trading near the same dollars this market uses to pick a year-end winner. The CF Benchmarks…
Crypto · BTC — August 8, 2026, 10:31pm ET
July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%
CPI in Julyupdated — Aug 11
ABOVE -0.3%1.0x100%
ABOVE -0.4%1.0x100%
$1M volume10 related markets
Kalshi’s July CPI ladder prices Above −0.1% at 89% and Above 0.0% at 61% — separate Yes/No bets…
Economics · Inflation — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
September hold is the favorite now, but a hike at 35% is far from done
Fed decision in Sep 2026?updated — Aug 11
FED MAINTAINS …1.7x58%
HIKE 25BPS2.4x42%
$6M volume5 related markets
The September hold has moved from a coin flip to a clear favorite — but 35% on a…
Economics · Fed — August 8, 2026, 5:35pm ET
Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?updated — Aug 11
BEFORE JAN 4, …19.6x5.1%
$11M volume1 related market
The January 4, 2027 deadline is still on the calendar, and traders treat the SAVE Act becoming law…
Politics · Congress — July 22, 2026, 6:46pm ET
Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actorupdated — Aug 11
EDW2.9x35%
GIAMATTI3.6x28%
$37.9K volume23 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Paul Giamatti leads Best Supporting Actor, with Robert Pattinson…
Culture · Oscars — July 22, 2026, 6:46pm ET
Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination
Florida Republican Governor nominee?updated — Aug 11
DONALDS1.0x98.3%
FISHBACK66.7x1.5%
$24M volume9 related markets
The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is still on the calendar, and traders treat U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds…
Elections · Governor — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?updated — Aug 8
DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.9x54%
REPUBLICAN PAR…2.7x37%
$209K volume3 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than a clean two-party story: Democrats lead Republicans to hold more governorships after…
Elections · Governor — July 22, 2026, 6:44pm ET
Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination
2028 Republican presidential nomineeupdated — Aug 11
J.D. VANCE2.4x42%
RUBIO3.8x26%
$56M volume38 related markets
Favorite and runner-up are closer than the headline suggests: Vice President J.D. Vance leads Secretary of State Marco…
Elections · 2028 — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. House?updated — Aug 10
DEMOCRATIC PAR…1.2x85%
REPUBLICAN PAR…6.3x16%
$22M volume2 related markets
An 83% chance Democrats win the U.S. House in 2026 still leaves Republicans a thin path on a…
Elections · House — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?updated — Aug 11
REPUBLICAN PAR…2.0x51%
DEMOCRATIC PAR…2.0x49%
$6.7M volume2 related markets
Traders have stopped treating Senate control as a House-style blowout — Republicans hold only a thin edge over…
Elections · Senate — July 22, 2026, 6:42pm ET
Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second
Pro Baseball Championupdated — Aug 11
D2.6x37.9%
Y8.8x11.3%
$51M volume30 related markets
Kalshi’s 2026 pro baseball champion market still prices the Los Angeles Dodgers as a clear favorite into late…
Sports · Baseball — July 22, 2026, 6:40pm ET
OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title
2027 Pro Basketball Championupdated — Aug 11
ANTONIO4.2x24%
OKLAHOMA CITY4.3x23%
$22M volume30 related markets
Kalshi’s 2027 pro basketball champion market is a two-horse open at the top: Oklahoma City at 22% and…
Sports · Basketball — July 22, 2026, 6:40pm ET
Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris
2028 Democratic presidential nomineeupdated — Aug 11
NEWSOM5.6x18%
OCASIOCORTEZ6.7x15%
$177M volume40 related markets
Nobody has formally entered the 2028 Democratic presidential race. National surveys in July still put Kamala Harris first;…
Elections · 2028 — July 22, 2026, 5:50pm ET
Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath
Will Democrats win the Senate race in North Carolina?updated — Aug 11
COOPER1.1x91.2%
WHATLEY11.8x8.5%
$1.3M volume2 related markets
North Carolina’s former governor Roy Cooper is the Democratic nominee for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Traders…
Elections · Senate — July 20, 2026, 2:41pm ET
Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide
LeBron James has spent recent weeks in Akron with family and friends, still without saying when he will…
Sports · Basketball — July 20, 2026, 12:40pm ET
Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household
Who will win Big Brother?updated — Aug 11
VALLADARES3.7x27%
DEVENS5.6x18%
$2.7M volume17 related markets
Dee Valladares, who won season 45 of the CBS show Survivor, entered Big Brother Season 28 as a…
Culture · Big Brother — July 21, 2026, 1:48pm ET

Boston is favored over Toronto near 60%

Ella Langley is still the favorite, but this Best New Artist race just reopened

A look forward: Who can win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?

Lakers near 84% for Bronny's next team as the board clears out

Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement

Oil's war premium has faded — but $115 before year-end still has a real price

Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or board with Yamal the clear chase

Claude leads year-end best-AI odds near 65%

The Rams lead the 2027 Super Bowl market after trading for Myles Garrett

Bitcoin’s year-end ladder favors $65k–$70k while spot sits on the line

July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%

September hold is the favorite now, but a hike at 35% is far from done

Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027

Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor

Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination

Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026

Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026

Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026

Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second

OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title

Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris

Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath

Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide

Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household

Boston is favored over Toronto near 60%

Ella Langley is still the favorite, but this Best New Artist race just reopened

A look forward: Who can win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?

Lakers near 84% for Bronny's next team as the board clears out

Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement

Oil's war premium has faded — but $115 before year-end still has a real price

Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or board with Yamal the clear chase

Claude leads year-end best-AI odds near 65%

The Rams lead the 2027 Super Bowl market after trading for Myles Garrett

Bitcoin’s year-end ladder favors $65k–$70k while spot sits on the line

July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%

September hold is the favorite now, but a hike at 35% is far from done

Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027

Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor

Donalds is Florida’s clear favorite for the GOP nomination

Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026

Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination

Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026

Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026

Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second

OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title

Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris

Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath

Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide

Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household

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