Kalshi prediction market analysis
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Be the wisdom, not the crowd
Newsom leads a crowded 2028 Democratic field while polls still favor Harris
2028 Democratic presidential nominee NEWSOM 18% · 5.6x
Traders price the SAVE Act as unlikely to become law by early 2027
Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? BEFORE JAN 4, … 7.5% · 13.3x
Giamatti leads Pattinson for Best Supporting Actor
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor GIAMATTI 29% · 3.4x
Ella Langley is a near lock for Best New Artist
Grammy Winner: Best New Artist LANGLEY 95% · 1.1x
Miami’s July 23 high favors 92–93° at the airport
Highest temperature in Miami on Jul 23, 2026? 92° TO 93° 58% · 1.7x
NYC high for July 23 clusters around 79–82°
Highest temperature in NYC on Jul 23, 2026? 79° TO 80° 44% · 2.3x
September Fed decision is a coin flip between hold and a hike
Fed decision in Sep 2026? RATE 50% · 2.0x
Donalds is a near lock for Florida’s GOP governor nomination
Florida Republican Governor nominee? DONALDS 96.8% · 1.0x
Democrats are slight favorites to hold more governorships after 2026
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? PARTY 54% · 1.9x
Q2 GDP: traders see Above 1.5% as likely, Above 2% as a coin flip
US GDP growth in Q2 2026? ABOVE 2.0% 51% · 2.0x
July CPI: traders lean toward a print still clearing 0%
CPI in July ABOVE 0.0% 67% · 1.5x
Vance leads Rubio for the 2028 Republican nomination
2028 Republican presidential nominee VANCE 40% · 2.5x
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. House? PARTY 83% · 1.2x
Republicans hold a thin edge for Senate control in 2026
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? PARTY 56% · 1.8x
Palmeiras are favorites over Atlético Mineiro with the draw still live
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro Winner? PALMEIRAS 63% · 1.6x
Lakers jump to 60% for Bronny’s next team before October
What will be Bronny James's next team? L 60% · 1.7x
Ankalaev is a heavy favorite over Guskov on short notice
Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov ANKALAEV 83% · 1.2x
Rahm is the LIV Golf UK favorite on a deep JCB field
LIV Golf United Kingdom Champion? RAHM 21% · 4.8x
Dodgers lead the World Series board with the Yankees a distant second
Pro Baseball Champion D 34.3% · 2.9x
OKC and San Antonio sit nearly even for the 2027 NBA title
2027 Pro Basketball Champion CITY 22% · 4.5x
Harry Kane leads the Ballon d’Or board with Yamal the clear chase
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? KANE 45% · 2.2x
Traders put a real minority on a July hike clearing 3.75%
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting? ABOVE 3.75% 23% · 4.3x
LAX high settles near 77–78° while downtown heats up
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 22, 2026? 77° TO 78° 90% · 1.1x
Miami hosts Chicago without Messi as Lewandowski debuts
Miami vs Chicago Fire Winner? MIAMI 42% · 2.4x
Toronto and Tampa Bay sit nearly even after two Rays blowouts
Tampa Bay vs Toronto Winner? TORONTO 51% · 2.0x
Boston stays a clear favorite in Game 1 of a rain-made doubleheader
Baltimore vs Boston Winner? SETTLED · BOSTON
Philadelphia stays a slight favorite after beating the Dodgers 10-7
Los Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner? SETTLED · PHILADELPHIA
Toronto is a coin-flip favorite after Chicago’s 12-4 statement
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Winner? SETTLED · CWS
Democrats are a heavy favorite in North Carolina, with a closer race underneath
Will Democrats win the Senate race in North Carolina?
Darline Graham leads South Carolina’s special Senate primary after Trump’s endorsement
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Miami takes the lead for LeBron after Cleveland’s weeklong slide
What will LeBron James’s next team be?
Spain is the favorite, but Messi’s Argentina is built for a final
Final: Spain vs Argentina SETTLED · FR
The Fed hold is a heavy favorite after a mid-month hike scare
Fed decision in July 2026?
Scheffler is the 3M Open favorite on a course he’s never played
Who will win the 3M Open? SETTLED · TCAM
Dee Valladares leads Big Brother winner odds after Week 1 Head of Household
Who will win Big Brother?
Traders lean toward higher Zyn shipments ahead of Philip Morris’s Q2 report
Zyn US shipment volume in Q2
Traders see little chance Bertha reaches hurricane strength
Hurricane Bertha category? CATEGORY 1 OR … 5% · 20.0x